Risk Assessment – Godinterest

May 9, 2016July 1, 2022

The New Day: How Should I Think About My Failures?

Everyone wants to be a success. I have never met anyone who purposely set out to be a failure. Undoubtedly, this is why so much has been written on the topic “How to be a Success” and why these books are so popular.

However, The New Day daily newspaper closed just nine weeks after launching, Trinity Mirror confirms.

The New Day was a British compact daily newspaper published by Trinity Mirror, launched on 29 February 2016. It was aimed at a middle-aged female audience and was politically neutral. The editor, Alison Phillips, intended readers to get through the newspaper in under 30 minutes.

The new paper was initially available for 25p for two weeks, then rising to 50p. Two million copies of the New Day was given away on the first day, as the turquoise-branded upstart attempted to spark a revival in readership and gain ground against the mid-market Mail and Express offline.

Arrogance about their own ability to rescue a situation can prevent leaders from changing course

The New Day had no leading articles, no website, and columnists and believed it could successfully drag readers back to print? The sad truth is that it did not attract enough attention and failed to create a daily newspaper that could co-exist in the digital age, especially as tabloids and broadsheets continue to suffer a significant circulation decline.

Shareholders at Trinity Mirror’s annual meeting called the failure “demoralising”. Analysts said it was “embarrassing”.

Assume for a moment that the leaders of The New Day had no idea about the changes swamping the print media as a result of the digital revolution, and carelessly decided to invest millions into the venture without undertaking a risk assessment and also decided to ignore every indication that the paper was failing. That would have been embarrassing and demoralising.

However, the leaders decided to fail quickly and shut down the project they started.

Abandonment is a rare, difficult and a valuable management skill. The natural instinct of most people is to persist, particularly when the project is a collective commitment, as most corporate ventures are, but then it becomes even harder to hit the red “stop” button.

The New Day’s editor, Alison Phillips, said in a statement posted on Facebook that the team “tried everything we could” but were unable to reach the figures needed to make it work financially.

We dread failure. We don’t like talking about it. Some of us will internalise and rethink our failures in our heads time and time again. Others will swipe them away, moving onto the next thing immediately. In the public, we prefer sweeping our failures under the rug, silently, while nobody is watching.

While this might save our feelings momentarily, this is not the way learn and innovate.

According to Albert Savoia – ex Googler and innovation expert, most project innovations will fail.

“Most New Things Will Fail – Even If They Are Flawlessly Executed.” – Albert Savoia – Ex Googler

Does this mean you should stay away from trying new things (and failing in the process)? Certainly not. It just means you need to accept failure will inevitably be a part of the process.

In most cases, however, a combination of arrogance about personal ability to rescue the situation and blindness to the lengthening odds of success stops leaders from changing course.

The natural lifespan of most projects is finite, and the rarities are companies that survive.

The Art of “strategic Quitting” Will Become More Important as Careers Fragment and Companies Exert More Discipline

So if an idea is doomed, organisations usually treat the person who pulled the plug early on as a hero right? Not exactly, it’s complicated.

Roy Greenslade, Professor of Journalism at City University London, wrote a report in The Guardian explaining how The New Day had failed. He pinpointed the error of marketing a newspaper to people who inherently despise newspapers, and the short period of time between the announcement and launch, leaving no time to advertise the product. It was also published early in the evening thus missing out on late-night breaking news such as Leicester City F.C.’s shock win of the Premier League.

“Nothing so powerfully concentrates a man’s mind on innovation as the knowledge that the present product or service will be abandoned in the foreseeable future.” – Peter Drucker

The first thing the Bible wants to say is that all of us have failed. None is without failure. If you think you haven’t failed, two things are true of you. One is you are blind to your failures and the other is you probably haven’t taken enough risks to try enough hard things so that you would be aware of your failures.

Peter Drucker’s influence on business management is legendary. Peter realised that “systematic abandonment” a regular, unsentimental spring-clean is critical to the fostering of new business ideas.

Conclusion, every organization needs to have a regular “rummage sale” to determine which products, services, and programs are worth keeping and which ones must be abandoned.

February 12, 2016July 1, 2022

65% of Mega-projects Fail

There’s a reason why Mega-projects are simply called “Mega-projects.” Extremely large in scale with significant impacts on communities, environment and budgets, mega-projects attract a lot of public attention and often cost more than 1 billion. Because of its grandiose, a successful mega-project requires a lot of planning, responsibility and work. Likewise, the magnificence of such projects also creates a large margin for failure.

Mega-projects Come with Big Expectations. But a Project’s Success Is Often in the Eye of the Beholder

Despite their socio-economic significance mega-projects – delivering airports, railways, power plants, Olympic parks and other long-lived assets – have a reputation for failure. It is thought that over optimism, over complexity, poor execution, and weakness in organizational design and capabilities are the most common root causes of megaproject failure.

Blinded by enthusiasm for the project, individuals and organizations involved with mega-projects often miscalculate the complexity of the project. When a mega-project is pitched, its common for costs and timelines to be underestimated while the benefits of the project are overestimated. According Danish economist Bent Flyvbjerg, its not unusual for project managers who are competing for funding to massage the data until it is deemed affordable. After all, revealing the real costs up front would make a project unappealing, he said. As a result, these projects are destined for failure.

For example, building new railways spanning multiple countries could prove to be disastrous if plans are overly complex and over-optimized. Such a large-scale project involves national and local governments, various environmental and health standards, a wide range of skills and wages, private contractors, suppliers and consumers; therefore, one issue could put an end to the project. Such was the case when two countries spent nearly a decade working out diplomatic considerations while building a hydroelectric dam.

Complications and complexities of mega-projects must be considered thoroughly before launch. One way to review the ins and outs of a project is through reference-class forecasting. This process forces decision makers to look at past cases that might reflect similar outcomes to their proposed mega-project.

Poor execution is also a cause for failure in mega-projects. Due to the overoptimism and overcomplexity of a project, it’s easy for project managers and decision makers to cut corners trying to maintain cost assumptions and protect profit margins. Project execution is then overwhelmed by problems such as incomplete design, unclear scope, and mathematical errors in risk assessment and scheduling.

Researchers at McKinsey studied 48 struggling mega-projects and found that in 73 percent of the cases, poor execution was responsible for cost and time overruns. The other 27 percent ran into issues with politics such as new governments and laws.

Low productivity is another aspect of poor execution. Even though trends show that manufacturing has nearly doubled its productivity in the last 20 years, construction productivity remains flat and in some instances has even declined. However, wages continue to increase with inflation, leading to higher costs for the same results.

According to McKinsey studies, efficiency in delivering infrastructure can reduce total costs by 15 percent. Efficiency gains in areas like approval, engineering, procurement and construction can lead to as much as 25 percent of savings on new projects without compromising quality outcomes. This proves that planning before execution is worth its weight in gold.

We Tend to Exaggerate the Importance of Contracting Approach to Project Success or Failure

Finally, weaknesses in organizational design and capabilities results in failed megaprojects. For example, organizational setups can have multiple layers and in some cases the project director falls four or five levels below the top leadership. This can lead to problems as the top tier of the organizational chain (for example, subcontractors, contractors and construction managers) tend to focus on more work and more money while the lower levels of the chain (for example, owner’s representative and project sponsors) are focused on delivery schedules and budgets.

Likewise, a lack of capabilities proves to be an issue. Because of the large-scaled, complex nature of mega-projects, there is a steep learning curve involved and the skills needed are scarce. All the problems of megaprojects are compounded by the speed at which projects are started. When starting from scratch, mega-projects may create organizations of thousands of people within 12 months. This scale of work is comparable to the significant operational and managerial challenge a new start-up might face.

In the end, it seems that if organizations take the time to thoroughly prepare and plan for their mega-projects, problems like overcomplexity and overoptimism, poor execution, and weaknesses in organizational design and capabilities could be avoided. After all, mega=projects are too large and too expensive to rush into.

February 5, 2016July 1, 2022

Why Should I Hire a Project Manager for My Church Project?

Is it worth hiring a project manager when any seemingly knowledgeable pastor or church member might do?

The truth is, project managers can be a valuable asset to any organization. Whereas the average church member who is only familiar with certain tasks might be overwhelmed by the complexity of major organizational assignments, project managers are trained to handle programs with elaborate factors such as high budgets, increased manpower and layers of duties.

An Astounding 97% of Organizations Believe Project Management Is Critical to Business Performance and Organizational Success. (Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers)

On the flip side, some professional bodies disagree, arguing that professionals like pastors, marketers, and accountants are able to manage projects just as well as any project manager with some effort.

Barely over Half (56%) of Project Managers Are Certified (Source: Wrike)

“It’s a raging debate,” said Tony Marks, author of the 20:20 Project Management guide.

“Some industries, such as oil and gas, are hesitant to hire outside project management specialists because they may lack industry knowledge. Instead, these industries prefer to employ technical experts and put them through project management training.”

“The danger is that these people are more likely to get sucked into their comfort zone dealing with the nitty-gritty and technical detail they understand and are fascinated by when they should be managing the project,” said Tony Marks.

In addition to being trained to juggle tasks efficiently, project managers spend an enormous amount of time honing their skills. Much more goes into the craft than obtaining Prince2 or APM certifications.

According to Mike Savage of Thales Training and Consultancy, the International Project Management Association requires its professionals to have at least 15 years of experience and training. The association has four grades from D to A. At the A level, project managers must have a minimum of five years project management experience, five years of program management and five years of portfolio management.

“So to Say That Anyone Can Be a Project Manager Is like Saying Anyone Can Be a Brain Surgeon, Said Savage.”

But just because there are individuals specializing in project management doesn’t mean non-specialists can’t learn the techniques as well. Ian Clarkson of training course provider QA encourages everyone to learn project management practices.

“The skills, leadership, planning and stakeholder engagement techniques are vital to all disciplines,” he said.

“Projects which are run by engineers with project management training are less likely to be successful than the reverse,” said Lloyd’s Register energy program director Roger Clutton. “If there is a lack of technical expertise that will show up in the risk assessment. But a lack of project management skills is much less likely to be detected.”

With that, it seems that the argument on whether or not hiring an outside project management is necessary will continue. But the debate only seems relevant to rival professions as there is projected to be 15 million new project management jobs within the decade. (Source: Project Management Institute).

No matter how you look at it, though, it seems that trained and experienced project managers must be worth their weight in gold.