What Do You Believe From The Scriptures?

What Do You Believe From The Scriptures?

If you believe what you like in the gospels, and reject what you don’t like, it is not the gospel you believe, but yourself.

– St. Augustine, Sermons

But I believe everything in the Bible. I take the Word as it is. The Bible says it, I believe it, that settles it.

Right?

The truth is that we are far more selective of the Bible verses we adhere to than we would like to admit, and tend to reject much of what Jesus said. We ignore some parts and highly favour others. This is not a good thing. Especially when it comes to the words of Jesus.

As Peter said, only Jesus’ words are the ones with eternal life (John 6:68).

You would think we would be better about listening to all of Jesus’ words then, but we are terrible for picking and choosing.

An example,

“Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or drink; or about your body, what you will wear. Is not life more than food, and the body more than clothes?Look at the birds of the air; they do not sow or reap or store away in barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not much more valuable than they?Can anyone of you by worrying add a single hour to your life?”

Matthew 6:25-27

Now, everyone, please, honestly tell me that you do not worry. Ever. About anything at all.

We’ll quote this verse. We’ll talk about how good God is that he provides all the time. We have so much, so many blessings.

And then we worry and stress and lose sleep over, agonize and torment ourselves and fret about money, work, our relationships. We completely forget about what Jesus said and try to solve, try to figure out, try to establish a plan to solve all our problems by ourselves.

(I am preaching to the choir. If you’ve read any of my other posts, you’ll know that I struggle with worry.)

This is a perfect example of picking and choosing verses. Picking and choosing Scripture that we want and don’t want. Picking and choosing what we want, when we want.

Not that worry is a small thing, by any means, but there are so many other things that we pick over and choose to ignore.

Like,

Loving our neighbour, the immigrant, the distinct other race of people in our community.

Giving to the poor, whether that be financially or by giving them opportunities to compete and be at the same level as other people.

Finding your treasures not in the possessions you have or your neighbour has, but seeing the stuff and junk and garbage of a consumer-driven society for what they are.

Basically, reread the Sermon on the Mount.

Look at what Jesus said. Think about how many things Jesus specifically called us out of, what he called us towards.

There is a lot that we pick and choose. And considering Saint Augustine’s quote, there is a lot of us in our beliefs, and not nearly enough Jesus. Not nearly enough gospel for how Christ-like or Christian we claim to be.

Let’s ask ourselves; what do you believe from the Scriptures, and what do the Scriptures call you to believe?

This article first appeared on Christian Thought Sandbox.

Marriage 2.0: Software Review

A newly married man wrote this to a computer *Data Analyst*

Dear Data Analyst

I am desperate for some help! I recently upgraded my program from *Girlfriend 7.0* to *Wife 1.0* following acceptance of the oath from the KJV Bible Instruction Manual and found that the new *Wife 1.0* program began unexpected Child Processing? *Wife 1.0* has also taken up a lot of space and valuable resources. This wasn’t explicitly mentioned in the _KJV instruction manual?

In addition *Wife 1.0* installs itself into all other programs and launches during systems initialisation at the start of each day and then it constantly monitors all other system activities.

Applications such as *”Boys’ Night out 2.5″* and *”Golf 5.3″* no longer run, and crashes the system whenever selected.

Attempting to operate selected *”Soccer 6.3″* always fails and *”Church 5.1″* and *”Shopping 7.1″* runs instead.

I cannot seem to keep *Wife 1.0* in the background whilst attempting to run any of my favorite applications. Be it online or offline.
.
I am thinking of going back to *”Girlfriend 7.0″*, but the uninstall button doesn’t work on this program and after reading the instruction guide seems to be prohibited by KJV Manual 9.0. Can you please help?

The Systems Analyst replied:

*Dear Customer,*

This is a very common problem resulting from a basic misunderstanding of the functions of the *Wife 1.0 program and a lack of understanding of the KJV Bible Instruction Manual*.

Many customers upgrade from _Girlfriend 7.0_ to _Wife 1.0_ after acceptance of the oath from the KJV Bible Instruction Manual thinking that _Wife 1.0_ is merely a *UTILITY AND ENTERTAINMENT PROGRAM.* This is not the case!

Actually, *Wife 1.0* is an _OPERATING SYSTEM_ designed by its *Creator* to run everything on your current platform. You must therefore review the KJV Bible Instruction Manual for daily guidance.

You will not be able to purge *Wife 1.0* and still convert back to _Girlfriend 7.0_, as *Wife 1.0* was not designed to do this and it is impossible to _uninstall, delete or purge the program files from the System once it is installed. The KJV Bible Instruction Manual only permits one installation. There maybe one or two exceptions to this rule, but you do not meet the criteria.

Some people have tried to install _Girlfriend 8.0 or Wife 2.0_ but have ended up with even more problems. *_(See Manual under Alimony/Child Support and Solicitors’ Fees/)._* Plus the instruction manual clearly states whoever uninstalls Wife 1.0_ , except for sexual immorality, and installs another, commits adultery.”

Having *Wife 1.0* installed, I recommend you keep it Installed and learn to deal with the situation as best as you can. You will find that the more closely you adhere to the insttruction manual and operate in accordance with the authors example the better your experience will be.

When any faults or problems occur, whatever you think has caused them, you must run the………
*C:\ APOLOGIZE\ FORGIVE AND PRAY.EXE* Program and avoid attempting to use the _*Esc-Key_ for it will freeze the entire system.

It may be necessary to run *C:\ APOLOGIZE\ FORGIVE ME AND PRAY.EXE* a number of times, and eventually hope that the operating system will return to normal.

Although *Wife 1.0,* demands respect, love, and attention,*Wife 1.0,* can be very rewarding.

To get the most out of *Wife 1.0,* , consider buying additional Software such as *”FAMILY PRAYER TIME 1.0, Flowers 2.0″* and *”Chocolates 5.0″*,*”Attention 6.0″* and *”HUGS\ KISSES 7.0″* or *”TENDERNESS\ UNDERSTANDING and SHARE HOUSEHOLD DUTIES 10.0″* or *”even Eating Out Without the Kids 7.2.1″* _(if Child processing has already started)._

*DO NOT* under any circumstances install *”Secretary 2.1″* _(Short Skirt Version)_ or *”One Nightstand 3.2″*, as this is not a supported Application for *Wife 1.0* and the system will almost certainly *CRASH*. In addition this could disqualify you from upgrading to, HEAVEN .11.0.

PS’ When my relationship crashed, I took a hard look at the conventional wisdom. Then did a reboot and emerged with a partnership that was built to last.

*BEST WISHES!*

Yours,”
Systems Analyst.

*#To all husbands/ future husbands*

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You Were Never Made to Be ‘Productive’

Compared to people in other industrialized nations, Americans work longer hours, take fewer vacation days, and retire later in life. Busyness, once seen as the curse of the disadvantaged, has become equated with status and importance. Our work increasingly defines who we are.

“Godly rest (distinct from play, relaxation, or sleep) is inextricably tied to our identity as children of God.”

The solution perhaps is to be “Lazy Intelligent”?  That sounds like something an unsuccessful, lazy slacker would say, isn’t it? Actually, it’s the opposite. One of America’s most influential and controversial science fiction authors Robert Heinlein uttered these words during his time. Despite his nod to laziness, Heinlein went on to pen hit titles such as Starship Troopers and Stranger in a Strange Land.

Productive laziness is not about doing absolutely nothing at all. It’s not about just sitting around and drinking coffee or engaging in idle gossip while watching the non-delivered project milestones disappear into the horizon. In fact, this behavior would lead to a very short-lived project management career.

Laziness Is Not Synonymous with Stupidity

Instead, productive laziness should be viewed as a more focused approach to management. Adopting this mindset means concentrating efforts where it really matters, rather than spreading yourself thing over unimportant, non-critical activities that in some cases don’t need to be addressed at all.

According to the Pareto Principle — Also Known as the “80/20 Rule” — 80 Percent of the Consequences Stem from 20 Percent of the Causes.

While the idea has a rule-of-thumb application, it’s also commonly misused. For example, just because one solution fits 80 percent of cases, that doesn’t mean it only requires 20 percent of the resources needed to solve all cases.

The principle, suggested by management thinker Joseph M. Juran, was named after Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who observed that 80 percent of property in Italy was owned by 20 percent of the population. As a result, it was assumed that most of the result in any situation was determined by a small number of causes.

Rest Is at the Center of God’s Design

Every smart but lazy person should consider the 80/20 Rule each day. For managers, the principle is a reminder to concentrate on the 20 percent of work that really matters.

Contrary to belief, 80 percent of success is not just showing up. In fact, only 20 percent of what you do during the day will produce 80 percent of your results. Therefore, it is important to identify and focus on that 20 percent during the working day.

Project Journal5

When genius and laziness meet, the results can be magical. Being just the right combination of smart and lazy can bring you to have a real edge over others. Interestingly enough, smart lazy people are generally better suited for leadership roles in organizations.  These people make great strategic thinkers and leaders. They do things in a smart way in order to expend the least effort. They don’t rush into things, taking that little bit of extra time to think and find the shortest, best path.

They  question, contradict, and show dissent against inefficient methods or unnecessary tasks.

“Whenever There Is a Hard Job to Be Done, I Assign It to a Lazy Man; He Is Sure to Find an Easy Way of Doing It. — Bill Gates”

Bill’s not the only guy, who believes that laziness doesn’t necessarily have to be a bad thing.  German Generalfeldmarschall Helmuth Karl Bernhard Graf von Moltke was the chief of staff for the Prussian Army for 30 years. He is regarded as one of the greatest strategists of the latter 1800s among historical scholars and is the creator of the more modern method of directing armies in the field.

Moltke observed his troops and categorized them based on their intelligence, diligence and laziness. If soldiers proved to be both lazy and smart, they were promoted to leadership because they knew how to be successful with efficiency. If soldiers were smart and diligent, they were deployed into a staff function, focusing on the details. Soldiers who were not smart and lazy were left alone in hopes they would come up with a great idea someday. Finally, soldiers who were not smart but diligent were removed from ranks.

Like Moltke’s army, the lazy manager is all about applying these principles in the delivery and management of work. You’re likely not stupid since you’ve landed the management position, but how are your lazy skills? Applying smart-lazy tactics will not only allow your work to be more successful, but you will also be seen as a successful individual and a top candidate for future leadership roles.

Think return on investment (time spent versus money earned ratio) rather than busy work and  don’t restrict yourself to a certain way  of doing things just for the sake of the status quo.

These people make great strategic thinkers and leaders. They do things in a smart way in order to expend the least effort. They don’t rush into things, taking that little bit of extra time to think and find the shortest, best path.

In the wise words of Bill Gate’s and American automotive industrialist Walter Chrysler, “Whenever there is a hard job to be done, assign it to a lazy man or woman for that matter; as he or she is sure to find an easy way of doing it.”

For an overachieving people-pleaser like me, thinking of rest as an innate part of who we were created to be—not as a discipline or something to be earned—is compelling. It is yet another form of God’s infinite grace, one that’s needed today more than ever.

Co-Author Peter Taylor

Described as “perhaps the most entertaining and inspiring speaker in the project management world today”, Peter Taylor is the author of two best-selling books on ‘Productive Laziness’ – ‘The Lazy Winner’ and ‘The Lazy Project Manager’.

 

Top 10 Project Management Myths Debunked

Since the dawn of time, mankind has used myths to make sense of the uncertainty that surrounds us.  In the early 1990s  a lot of  people believed that project management was the best kept secret in business.  However,  because project management was not  seen as a  prevailing profession at that time, it suffered from a lack of awareness  which was  in a sense, a double edged sword. Those who were knowledgeable in the practice of project management became extreamly valuable to organisations and pioneers for  the profession.

These early adopters were able to convince organisations that project management practitioners were needed.  Myths around project management began to form in the business community  and as the role of the  project manager was unclear, questions were raised as to what project management was  and what it could offer organisations.

The definition of the word myth is a “widely held, but false belief or idea.” Here, we’re going to examine 10 of the most pervasive PM myths that have emerged.

Myth #1 – Contingency pool is  redundant  

This is one of the most ‘mythical’ myths that has plagued the industry  for a long time. Coupled  with the tendency to presume that ‘real work’ is tantamount to implementation or building something concrete and you have the perfect recipe for project disaster.  The thought pattern behind this approach typically originates from budget constraints and/or having unrealistic expectations. As we all know, or should know, the unexpected happens quite regularly. An effective contingency plan is important as it aims to protect that which has value (e.g., data), prevent or minimise disruption (e.g., product lifecycle), and provide post-event feedback for analysis (e.g., how did we fare? did we allocate funds correctly?).

Myth #2 – Project Management software is too expensive

If your idea of project management software involves purchasing servers, and purchasing a software application from a major vendor for a small practice with 10  practitioners  then, yes, it  is too expensive. If, however, you have gone cloud and elected to use a powerful web-based project management solution (such as Smartsheet), then you are likely to save thousands of pounds while reaping the benefits of a pay-as-you-go price structure. The present, and future, lie in cloud solutions that provide equal, or superior, functionality at a fraction of the cost.

Myth #3 – Project Management methodologies will slow us down

Project  managers  have  a reputation of using  process-intensive  methodologies  that favour ideology over pragmatism. In some instances this may, indeed, be the case when  there is a mismatch between a specific project management approach and the organisation’s acutall needs (e.g., a process-driven method, such as PRINCE2, may not be appropriate for a slightly chaotic environment that favours an adaptive approach, such as Scrum). So, in sum, put down the paint roller (“Project Management isn’t for us!”) and take out your fine-bristled brush (“The Critical-Chain method may not be our cup of tea, but Agile on the other hand”¦”).

Myth #4 – Facts and figures are more important than feelings and perceptions

While facts are very important, projects are often derailed and sabotaged because of false perceptions.  The PM must pay attention to both fact and fiction to navigate through turbulent  organisational change.

Myth #5 – Project managers need to be detail oriented and not strategic in nature

While it is of the utmost importance for the project manager to understand how to read the details of the project, they must also understand how the project supports organisational objectives.  Having a strategic perspective adds great value to the skill-set of the project manager.

Myth #6  Rely on the experts in everything that you do

It is true, we do need to rely on the experts but our trust can not be a blind faith.  The job of the project managers in this area is twofold.  First we must extract information and second we must verify that the information is accurate.  A good example of this is asking a planner  to provide an estimate on the effort required to perform a task.  In some instances team members forget to include tasks which ultimately results in a faulty estimate.

Myth #7  All the battles have to be fought and won so that we can succeed

Project managers sometimes make the assumption that they need to stand firm to get the job done, however, coming to compromise  on a particular issue is often a better course of action  in order to  win the war.

Myth #8 Project Managers  can wear multiple hats  

Wearing different hats can be extremely confusing.  This is especially true if the project manager is asked to be a business analyst or technical expert on top of serving in their PM role.  They end up doing  both roles with mediocrity.  When we “wear two hats” we essentially tell ourselves that both hats fit on one head at the same time. However, what happens if the demands of two roles conflict  and what assurances do we have that we’re managing the inherent conflict of multiple roles  and the  risks the  roles introduce? Sadly, multiple roles become more common as we move up the management hierarchy in an organisation, and that’s exactly where potential conflicts of interest can do the most harm.

Myth #9  Once the risk register is created, it’s full speed ahead

Risk management provides a forward-looking radar. We can use it to scan the uncertain future to reveal things that could affect us, giving us sufficient time to prepare in advance. We can develop contingency plans even for so-called uncontrollable risks, and be ready to deal with likely threats or significant opportunities.  Too often, it’s not until a catastrophic event occurs and significantly impacts project progress that ongoing risk reviews are conducted.

Myth #10 Project managers can not be effective in their role unless they have specific technical expertise in the given field that the project falls  within

You don’t need to be an engineer to manage a construction project or a IT  technician to manage a software development project.  All you need is a  fundamental  understanding with strong PM skills to manage  the team.  Experience in the field helps but does not guarantee success.

Project management is challenging enough without the myths. The profession has come a long way since the 1990s and some of these myths are fading. However, we still see remnants of them in one form or another.  Great projects cut through false assumptions and confusion, allowing their teams to make smart decisions based on reality.

These are just 10 project management myths, what are yours?  

9 Suggestions for Overcoming Barriers to Good Design When Using Modern Methods of Construction (Mmc)

The term ‘Modern Methods of Construction’ (MMC)  embraces a range of technologies involving various forms  of prefabrication and off-site assembly.

MMC is increasingly regarded as a realistic means of  improving quality, reducing time spent on-site, improving  on-site safety and addressing skills shortages in the  construction of UK housing.

Bridge Crossing Modern Design
Bridge Crossing Modern Design

The variety of systems now available potentially allows the  designer enough choice to sidestep problems deriving  from constraints posed by the use of any one method.  MMC systems, from closed-panel timber framed  systems to bathroom pods are a palette from which  designers can make choices. They are not necessarily  stand-alone solutions that anticipate all the needs of  an individual site and can be mixed and matched  as appropriate.

These limitations are not obstacles to achieving the good design in MMC-based schemes, but may hinder  the incorporation of more complex and innovative  types of MMC from which greater overall benefits  may be obtained  which  are considered under the  following headings:

1. COST UNCERTAINTY

There is no doubt that, given products of comparable  performance the key issue in purchases of MMC construction  systems is the price. At present not enough is known  about the potential costs of using volumetric and  closed panel systems to enable confident specification  at an early date. This inhibits designers from exploring  the full potential of MMC systems. This is particularly true of the less repetitive,  small, one-off scheme, where a smaller margin  of benefits is gained from using MMC. The principal  barrier to the uptake of MMC, therefore, seems  to be the perception of cost uncertainty with respect to using more complex systems.  Without doing substantial project-specific research,  consultants and their clients simply do not know with  enough degree of certainty how much the volumetric or  closed panel systems are likely to cost, and what  would be the savings to overall project costs produced  by potential speed gains to offset against increased  capital expenditure.

This is due to the complexity of assessing the ratio of  cost of repetitive elements where pricing is relatively  straightforward to the cost of adjusting elements or  building in another method for the abnormal condition.  Decisions to use innovative systems are likely to be  made once designs are well progressed to enable  teams to be more certain of costs. This can increase  the potential for change or result in design compromise  as the designer attempts to incorporate the specific  limitations of a particular system in their design.

In an attempt to improve this situation, the MMC consultant and or clients  could  pull together a  directory of MMC  expanded to include cost comparison data. The huge  range of variables involved inevitably makes this  difficult, but a database of current construction cost  information  would be an  invaluable resource.

Contemporary Building Facade
Contemporary Building Facade

2. PLANNING PROCESS AND EARLY COMMITMENT  TO A SYSTEM

The time it can take to obtain planning permission has  obvious implications both for project cost but also, in  some circumstances, for architectural  design innovation.

Most of the more complex types of MMC have an  impact on dimensioning, the choice of external finish  and detailing may have some effect on the buildings  mass. Therefore,  the construction system should be  chosen prior to a planning application to avoid  abortive work, redesign or amendment, or even  resubmission for planning permission.

However,  developers  whose money is at risk, frequently hold  off deciding on the construction technique until the last  practicable moment, in order to get any advantage from  fluctuations in material or component pricing.

Given the potential for lengthy duration of planning  applications, this means that there is little incentive to  prepare initial designs for planning with a prior decision  to incorporate MMC firmly embedded. In cases where  the developer has a financial or business link with the  supplier, this is less likely to be the case. As the majority  of commercial or  residential developments involve some kind of arrangement with a developer, agreement on construction systems is often left to the stage after planning.

3. TIME INVESTMENT

Another very significant factor is the time investment required at  the early stages of projects. This is needed to develop the design when the project is still at risk. There is a  direct relationship between the scale and complexity of  MMC component and the amount of time required to  develop a design at an early stage.

The introduction of advanced or complex MMC  techniques into the design process is potentially costly  to the design team. A significant amount of research is  needed to explore alternative systems, to obtain  verification of suppliers’   credentials, investigate  mortgage and insurance issues, visit previous sites,  talk to system suppliers, obtain technical performance  guidelines, understand junctions and interfaces, coordinate  other consultants, obtain building control input  and so on.

For a consultant, the only way of investing in this  research is either through timely payment of increased  fees by a visionary understanding client or through the anticipation of increased future productivity through repetition when a  project is phased, or large enough, or likely to be  followed by another similar project.

The potential of learning a system and then being able  to repeat lessons learned efficiently is a powerful  incentive for both client and consultant. By contrast, HTA’ s project at Basingstoke is an example  of a phased project with a three to four-year duration allowed the design team to repeat  various elements of the design, and the manufacturer to  develop improved solutions to technical and supply  problems.

HTA’ s project at Basingstoke
HTA’ s project at Basingstoke

4. INSUFFICIENT COMMUNICATION

Improved dialogue at the outset of the  project is  vital if design quality is to be  maximised. Constraints and opportunities implicit within  a particular system are more easily incorporated into  design if partners communicate pre-planning.  Increased early communication can be fostered through  improved long-term partnering relationships.

Clients  should also partner with a range of suppliers and  architects so that choice and flexibility is not restricted.

5. INEXPERIENCE

Generally, the inexperienced client or design team will  have to do more research, with the result  that there is likely to be significant design development  without a specific system being incorporated.

This is a  disincentive to using a more complex system involving a  higher proportion of MMC, where early decision making  and knowledge of a system’ s capabilities have a decisive influence on the nature of the architecture.  However,  encouraging the take up  of MMC through the use of a dedicated funding mechanism may  assist clients  in  finding time for  research into suitable MMC techniques.

Dome Construction Berlin
Dome Construction Berlin

6. SUPPLIER’S ROLE

Site capacity  studies and early stage pre-planning design studies  could be undertaken directly by system suppliers  on behalf of clients, cutting out the usual procedure  of commissioning design work by independent  consultants.

7. ASSUMPTIONS

There are a  number of assumptions that  are generally held about certain types of MMC that may  have been valid at one time but are no longer true today.  There is a need for reliable and up to date information  comparing system criteria, performance data, timescales, lead in times, capacity, construction time,  sequencing issues, limitations, and benefits.

Therefore  it would be helpful if a forum  for discussion and experience exchange was set up.

8. DEMONSTRATING THE BENEFITS OF MMC

There is still a large amount of skepticism about the  need to go very far down the line with MMC. This is  reflected in the acceptance of the desirability of  maintaining or indeed enhancing the pool of traditional  craft skills throughout the UK.

A balanced view is that there is a demonstrable need  for the wider use of MMC which is recognized by both  industry and government.  The best way for clients  and the public generally to  become more confident and knowledgeable about the  quality of design achievable through MMC is to see it  demonstrated.

9. FINANCIAL INCENTIVES

There is no doubt that spreading the burden of  investment through the life of a project helps to ensure  a higher standard of specification and hence quality. In  the Netherlands, a ‘ Green Financing’   system has been  developed by the Dutch government that provides  favorable loan finance when certain sustainable  standards are reached. In the UK, the Gallions HA  has  pioneered  a study of this, based on a scheme in  Thamesmead, ‘ the Ecopark project’.

Eco Park is an eco-friendly business park built on the False Bay coast. This business park is at the cutting-edge of sustainable design and offers a unique working environment in a secure, well-managed facility.
Eco Park is an eco-friendly business park built on the False Bay coast. This business park is at the cutting-edge of sustainable design and offers a unique working environment in a secure, well-managed facility.

Playing God: Swedish Train operator uses Big Data to ‘avoid train delays that haven’t happened yet’

In a sign of things to come, a Swedish train operator is using new technology that employs big data to predict the entire commuter train system two hours into the future.

Welcome to the world of “Big Data.” We have more information at our fingertips than any generation in history. We live in the world of “Big Data.” That is the new way people are trying to describe this sea of digital facts, figures, products, books, music, video, and much more. Twitter, apps, Facebook–they’re each giving science new ways to look at what people do and why.

“Hopes, fears, and ethical concerns relating to technology are as old as technology itself.”

We actually welcome some aspect of Big Data. These mysterious data successes (or accidental successes) are easy to see as a kind of Big Brother future, where technology can track your every move and report back to ”¦ someone. However, StockholmstÃ¥g, the train operator is using new technology that employs big data to predict train delays before they happen.

“The Commuter Prognosis –  A Social Scientist’s Dream Come True.”

The mathematic algorithm, called “The commuter prognosis” was  developed in Stockholm, Sweden.

When a train is not on time the algorithm forecasts disruptions in the entire network by using historic big data  to  prevent the ripple effects that actually causes most delays.
Wilhelm Landerholm the mathematician who has developed the algorithm said:

“We have built a prediction model, using big data, that lets us visualize the entire commuter train system two hours into the future. We can now forecast disruptions in our service and our traffic control center can prevent the ripple effects that actually cause most delays.”

The algorithm has been tested but is not currently being  used by traffic controllers.

How  does it work?

The key to the model is a large  amount of historical data. The model works similar to a seismograph, an instrument that measures and records details of earthquakes, such as force and duration, but instead identifies late train arrivals. When this happens, the system  uses historical data from previous occurrences to forecast the likely  impact on the entire train network.

Real-time public transportation information is already used around the globe, however, traffic control centers still typically assess  delays manually to try and prevent further problems in a network. The commuter prognosis system, on the other hand, will forecast these delay effects instantaneously  and provide a prediction of how a single or multiple  disturbance might  affect  the whole  train network. The  commuter prognosis system could change how traffic control centers operate all over the world.

“The Effects of One Delayed Train Can Quickly Multiply Within a Train Network”

Imagine that “The commuter prognosis” forecasts that a train will be 10 minutes late to station C in two hours. To deal with this the traffic control center issues a new train from station A that will arrive on time at station C. As soon as the new train has been put in motion the algorithm re-calculates and gives the traffic control center a new forecast for the entire train network within minutes.”

The most important benefit of “The commuter prognosis” is that it  provides for a more punctual public transportation.

“The commuter prognosis” will be available in a smartphone app based on the original model. The app will integrate with other transportation big data to make commuting easier and  will indicate which coaches are more or less crowded.

Big Data, Ethics, and Religion

These stories remind us that even though companies and governments are doing amazing things with data, it’s at best imperfect. The algorithms and programs they use to filter and respond to data are at least as fallible as the human beings who designed them.  We can also see its complexity and failures as evidence of the amazing omnipotence of our God – who doesn’t make errors and who knows right where to find us, even inside a great fish or the depths of hell.

The arrival of big data has already brought with it numerous questions that have yet to be properly addressed. These questions are methodological, epistemological, and ethical, and they concern (inter alia) the ways in which data is collected, stored, interpreted, represented, and traded.  A further complication is a speed with which data science is advancing, which means that (for example) the application of legal and ethical restrictions to the practice of that science will always risk being several steps behind the point that it has currently reached. There are indications that we are currently sleepwalking towards a situation in which the commercial exploitation of big data routinely increases social division, and renders privacy a thing of the past.

Ket factors

  • A mathematical model interprets big data to forecasts for each train in the train network.
  • The commuter prognosis can warn about delays two hours before the departure or arrival actually takes place.
  • The commuter prognosis calculates how the delay affects other trains in the system.
  • The purpose of “the commuter prognosis” is to make life easier for traffic control centers and to give passengers  a better service.
  • In the future, the algorithm will be potentially adaptable for more types of public transportations and cities.

 

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